Posthaste: If you thought Trump’s trade war was bad, watch out for the tariff scams

Scams related to Donald Trump ‘s tariffs are on the rise as fraud aided by artificial intelligence increasingly mirrors life. Data from an Interac survey out this morning shows that 58 per cent of Canadians have experienced a

tariff scam in the past six months, including messages about package delays, customs fees or impersonation calls.

“Scams are increasingly mirroring real life – and Canadians are seeing the impact,” said Interac in its press release.

Almost 80 per cent of Canadians believe AI is enabling fraudsters to create highly convincing scams by capitalizing on breaking news and current events, making it harder to distinguish legitimate messages from fraud.

“Not all scams look suspicious and that is what worries Canadians,” said

Royal Bank of Canada , whose own fraud poll this month found people are struggling with more frequent and harder-to-spot scams.

“Canadians feel increasingly vulnerable as they navigate a growing wave of scams designed to appear legitimate by exploiting familiarity, authority and trust.”

Trump’s volatile trade policy — “where urgency and unfamiliar changes already feel plausible” — is fertile ground for fraudsters who take advantage of consumers’ confusion.

More than half of those polled believe scammers are actively exploiting uncertainty around trade rules between Canada and the United States, found the Interac poll.

To defend themselves more Canadians are sticking to “Made in Canada.”

A third of the respondents now prioritize Canadian websites over international sites, a shift in where they place their trust, Interac said.

Nearly a quarter say they have reduced their cross-border purchases because of concerns about fraud, and 47 per cent are avoiding unfamiliar retailers.

Fraudsters have also zeroed in on Canadians’ cost of living challenges with scams involving overdue bill notices, utility shutoff threats and offers of government assistance.

“Our latest Interac survey reflects what we’re seeing on the front lines – fraudsters are moving faster and tracking the news cycle to make phishing, impersonation and investment scams seem legitimate,” said Mark Hines, head of product, fraud, at Interac.

“As those scams become harder to spot, many of the warning signs Canadians once relied on are less clear, eroding trust in everyday digital interactions.”

Traditional red flags like typos or poor formatting, for example, are no longer the indicators of fraud they once were because of the increasing sophistication of AI-assisted scams.

More than half of the Canadians polled say they have doubted legitimate messages from trusted organizations like banks and telecom providers because scam attempts have become so convincing.

Over 80 per cent in the RBC poll said it’s safest to assume any unexpected text, email or call is a scam.

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Oil analysts are hiking their forecasts for crude as the supply disruption in the Middle East deepens.

Energy researchers Rystad Energy have raised their forecast for the

average oil price for 2026 from US$60 to as high as US$100, under two scenarios of how the conflict could play out.

If hostilities continue for two months, oil prices would rise to US$110 a barrel before gradually declining to US$70 by year end. In the four-month scenario, prices rise higher to US$135 before easing to US$85 by year end.

“At present, the two-month scenario appears more likely, although the situation remains highly fluid,” said Janiv Shah, Rystad vice president, oil markets. “More extreme scenarios cannot be ruled out right now.”

• Today’s Data: United States existing home sales, NFIB small business optimism
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• Here’s why bets are rising for interest rate hikes including for Canada
• It’s been five years since mortgage rates hit all-time lows, and no one is celebrating this anniversary
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Fifth anniversaries are traditionally celebrated with wood, but five years after mortgage rates hit an all-time low, some homeowners are probably wishing for stone, with a rate etched in it.

About a million Canadians got the rate of a lifetime on a mortgage in 2021, but today find themselves married to homes that will cost them a lot more to carry over the next half-decade.

The Financial Post Garry Marr takes a look at how the mortgage renewal story is playing out across Canada.

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on  one of the country’s most important sectors.

McLister on mortgages

Sign up here. Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

Financial Post on YouTube

mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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• How $100 oil could do Canada’s economy more harm than good
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