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Crypto markets may be quietly turning a corner, according to analyst Ran Neuner, but he says this is not the time for blind optimism.

Neuner says he is “cautiously bullish”, meaning the signs look better than before, but the market still has something important to prove.

Why He’s Feeling Better Than Before

Neuner pointed to a key move that happened right around New Year’s. Bitcoin broke above its short-term downtrend and climbed back above its 50-day moving average, a level many traders watch closely.

What made this move more convincing was the follow-through. Bitcoin didn’t just jump above the level, it came back down, tested it, and held. Neuner says that usually shows strength, not weakness.

Even more interesting, the same thing happened across other major coins. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have all moved back above their 50-day averages too.

“That tells you this isn’t just one coin moving,” Neuner explained. “It’s the whole market trying to recover.”

U.S. Buyers Are Back

Another signal catching attention is the return of the Coinbase premium. This happens when Bitcoin trades slightly higher on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, showing stronger demand from U.S. investors.

Neuner says this matters because many past rallies started when American buyers stepped back in first.

The Market Is Acting Healthier

Simply put, more buyers than sellers are showing up again. Neuner also opened up about changes in market structure. Prices are now forming higher highs and higher lows, which is often how recoveries begin.

At the same time, altcoins have started outperforming Bitcoin, and Bitcoin dominance has slipped a bit. That usually means traders are becoming more confident and willing to take risk again.

The Level That Decides Everything

“These are early signs,” Neuner said, “but they are signs.” Despite all the positives, Neuner says Bitcoin is heading toward a make-or-break moment.

The 200-day moving average, which sits around $107,000, is the next major hurdle. In strong bull markets, Bitcoin pushes above this level and keeps going. In weaker markets, price rallies up to it, gets rejected, and then drops again.

Neuner warned that past cycles have seen this exact setup turn into a fake recovery that pulled people back in before the market fell lower.

A Warning From the Weekly Chart

Zooming out even more, Neuner pointed to the weekly chart, where Bitcoin has dropped below its 50-week moving average. Historically, that level has acted as strong support during bull markets.

In earlier cycles, once Bitcoin lost that level, price often bounced back to it, failed to reclaim it, and then slid toward the 200-week moving average, which now sits near $60,000.

So… Bull Market or Fake Bounce?

That would be the bearish scenario. Neuner says the market is standing at a crossroads. If Bitcoin breaks above major resistance and holds it, this could be the next leg of the bull market. If it fails, the recent rally could end up being just a pause before more downside.

“For now, things look better,” he said. “But the next move will tell us the real story.”