The latest increase in United States tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber is creating chaos in New Brunswick’s forestry sector and raising serious concerns about the future of its exports.

Chris Spencer, manager of the Southern New Brunswick Forest Products Marketing Board — which represents more than

8,000 private woodlot owners — said the combined countervailing duties and tariffs, now reaching 45 per cent, are placing intense pressure on an

already fragile industry . “Not many margins can tolerate that kind of tax or levy,” he said. “Personally, I think it’s enough to devastate an entire sector here in the Maritimes and probably across Canada.”

Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 10 per cent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, but he used the vague term “timber,” which has created widespread confusion among producers and U.S. border officials, Spencer said.

He said some trucks carrying loads of hardwood crossed the border on Wednesday believing their products were exempt. That assumption turned out to be incorrect.

“We’ve had trucks turned around at various border crossings because customs officials didn’t know what products were included,” Spencer said. “At some crossings, we were told only softwood roundwood was affected, while others said all forest products were.”

He said different interpretations were reported at each of the four main international crossings between New Brunswick and Maine, leading to shipment delays and widespread uncertainty across the sector.

“Chaos is an understatement,” he said. “It’s one thing to face a tough market. It’s worse when you don’t even know what rules you’re playing by.”

David Campbell, an economist in New Brunswick, believes the 45 per cent tariff is unsustainable since New Brunswick’s forestry sector is highly dependent on U.S. markets.

“You’re going to see more sawmills closing in the province, at least on a short-term basis, idling their production,” he said, adding that has downstream ripple effects because there isn’t enough byproducts to produce paper products, for example.

The U.S. is the largest market for the wood, lumber and paper products that New Brunswick produces, which are annually worth $3.74 billion, according to an economic impact report by Campbell for Forest New Brunswick, a not-for-profit industry association representing the province’s forest industry.

About 45 per cent of the value of the industry’s exports goes to other provinces in Canada, the report said, while 80 per cent to 90 per cent of international exports go to the U.S.

“We produce far more lumber and paper than the Canadian market can handle,” Campbell said. “Without access to the U.S., companies may be forced to reduce capacity.”

The SNB board is the largest of seven forestry marketing boards in the province and represents producers that work exclusively on private land, which accounts for about 30 per cent of New Brunswick’s forested area. Many of these producers export directly into Maine, supporting mills on both sides of the border.

Spencer said the uncertainty has already disrupted longstanding contracts with major buyers such as

J.D. Irving Ltd. (JDI), the province’s largest forestry company. He said his members would typically have four-month delivery agreements with the company, but their latest contracts are just 10 weeks long, which is a direct reflection of the uncertainty.

“Even they don’t know what’s coming out of Washington,” he said.

U.S. mills may benefit in the short term from reduced Canadian competition, but Spencer said the long-term impact of higher tariffs will be felt by American consumers.

“This is pure protectionism,” he said. “And at the end of the day, it’s U.S. homebuyers who’ll pay more for lumber.”

Spencer said some Canadian producers with operations on both sides of the border may be able to mitigate their losses, but most cannot adjust quickly enough.

“We’ve learned a painful lesson: we can’t find new customers fast enough, and we can’t make long-term investments when we don’t know the rules,” he said.

Spencer said the intensifying trade conflict highlights the urgent need for a renewed agreement under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) to resolve the softwood lumber dispute.

“This can’t continue,” he said. “The forestry sector supports thousands of jobs, and we need a long-term, respected agreement, not just a temporary fix.”

JDI, meanwhile, has continued to expand its U.S. presence with facilities in Georgia, New York and Maine. Its subsidiary, Irving Tissue Co. Ltd., announced last year that it would invest US$600 million to expand a tissue mill in Georgia, adding 100 jobs there.

Campbell said he believes companies such as Irving are lobbying U.S. lawmakers — particularly in Republican states — to recognize them as integrated North American companies, not foreign exporters.

“This isn’t just a Canadian operation anymore,” he said. “These firms are creating U.S. jobs. That’s a strong case for exemption.”

The new tariff surge has also reignited a familiar rift in the U.S. between domestic timber producers, which support higher tariffs, and the U.S. homebuilding industry, which warns that such measures drive up housing costs.

“The homebuilders don’t want lumber prices to spike; it cuts into housing affordability,” Campbell said. “We’ve seen this tension before, and it could be key to finding a resolution.”

The National Association of Home Builders has previously urged U.S. administrations to avoid excessive duties on Canadian softwood to prevent increased construction and housing costs.

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